Get Betting Tips and Odds for Giants vs Orioles – 9/18/2024

San Francisco Giants

@

Baltimore Orioles

As the MLB season winds down, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a solid position with an 84-67 record. They host the San Francisco Giants, who are struggling at 73-78, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 18, 2024. The Orioles, still in the hunt for a postseason berth, have a clear edge as they aim to bounce back from a surprising 10-0 loss to the Giants on September 17.

Baltimore’s Dean Kremer takes the mound, aiming to improve his below-average Power Rankings position of #133 out of approximately 350 starting pitchers. Despite this, Kremer has shown flashes of effectiveness, particularly in his last start where he pitched seven strong innings. He’ll face off against Hayden Birdsong, one of the lower-ranked pitchers in the league, according to the Power Rankings. Birdsong’s projection for this game isn’t promising, with a below-average strikeout rate and significant struggles in controlling hits and walks.

The Orioles boast the 7th-best offense in the league, with a particularly impressive power game ranking 2nd in home runs. Their offensive prowess could exploit Birdsong’s high fly ball tendency, potentially turning routine flyouts into home runs. Gunnar Henderson, the Orioles’ standout hitter, will be key, having accumulated 37 home runs and a .904 OPS this season. On the other hand, the Giants’ offense ranks 21st overall, with a lackluster performance in both batting average and home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors Baltimore with a 59% win probability, slightly higher than the 60% implied by betting odds. The Orioles are expected to score around 4.76 runs, leveraging their offensive strength against a struggling Giants’ starter. While the Giants did pull off a shutout victory in their last game, the odds and projections align in Baltimore’s favor to even the series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all starting pitchers, Hayden Birdsong’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph ranks in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Mike Yastrzemski has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph to 93.7-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 93.6 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Dean Kremer places him the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Heston Kjerstad has experienced some positive variance this year. His .334 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .278.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Baltimore’s 14.5° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in Major League Baseball this year: #4 overall.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 42 games (+16.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+6.99 Units / 10% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+17.00 Units / 68% ROI)