Get Betting Tips and Odds for Angels vs Cubs – 06 July, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 6, 2024, at Wrigley Field, both teams are looking to improve their standings in an Interleague matchup. The Cubs, currently holding a 41-48 record, are having a below-average season, while the Angels, with a 36-51 record, are enduring a particularly rough year. This game marks the second contest in the series between these two teams.

The Cubs will send right-hander Kyle Hendricks to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 1-6 record and a 7.48 ERA. Despite these troubling numbers, Hendricks’s 4.14 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and might be due for some positive regression. On the flip side, the Angels will counter with lefty Tyler Anderson, whose 7-8 record and 3.03 ERA indicate a solid season. However, Anderson’s 5.30 xFIP points to potential overperformance, hinting that he might not sustain his current success.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 20th in MLB, struggling with a 25th-place team batting average and 23rd in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 8th. Ian Happ has been a bright spot for Chicago, boasting a .444 batting average and 1.621 OPS over the last week, including 3 home runs and 10 RBIs in 6 games. On the other side, the Angels rank 16th in offense, with an average team batting average (19th) and home runs (14th). Logan O’Hoppe has been hot for Los Angeles, hitting .353 with a .918 OPS over his last 5 games.

The Cubs’ bullpen ranks 16th, making it an average unit, while the Angels’ bullpen is the worst in MLB, ranked 30th. This could be a critical factor late in the game, especially if the starters falter.

Tyler Anderson’s low strikeout rate (15.6 K%) might play to his advantage against the Cubs, who strike out frequently (6th most in MLB). However, the Cubs’ patience at the plate (4th most walks) could exploit Anderson’s high walk rate (10.9 BB%).

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cubs to score 5.29 runs on average in this game, with the Angels scoring 4.77 runs. Given these projections and the current odds, the Cubs are favored to win, with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Angels, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%.

With both teams struggling this season, this matchup offers an intriguing mix of potential regression and offensive opportunities. The Cubs’ edge in bullpen strength and the Angels’ vulnerability in that area could be decisive factors in this contest.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given his large reverse platoon split, Tyler Anderson figures to be at an advantage squaring off against 7 hitters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mickey Moniak has big-time HR ability (82nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for Moniak.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Kyle Hendricks’s 87.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 0th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The Los Angeles Angels have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Patrick Wisdom pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+12.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Mickey Moniak has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.20 Units / 59% ROI)