Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-150
The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers square off in the final game of their series on July 25, 2024, at Progressive Field. The Guardians are having a stellar season with a 61-40 record, sitting second in the American League Central, while the Tigers find themselves at a modest 50-53, outside of playoff contention. Cleveland eked out a 2-1 victory over Detroit on July 24, with the Guardians being slight favorites at -140 on the Moneyline.
Gavin Williams, ranked the 87th best starting pitcher in MLB, will take the mound for the Guardians. Despite his 0-2 record and a 4.50 ERA, his advanced metrics suggest some variance in his performance. His 3.25 FIP indicates he’s been unlucky, possibly hinting at improvements. Meanwhile, Kenta Maeda of the Tigers is having a rough season with a 7.07 ERA and a 2-5 record. His recent outing on July 9 also left much to be desired, allowing 6 earned runs in just 3 innings.
Offensively, the Guardians are rated 12th best in MLB, with key contributions from Jose Ramirez—boasting a .272 batting average, 24 home runs, and 82 RBIs. Meanwhile, the Tigers struggle at 25th in overall offense, despite Riley Greene’s efforts with a .267 batting average and 17 home runs.
The Guardians’ bullpen is another strong point, ranked 1st in MLB, compared to the Tigers’ sturdy but less dominant 6th-ranked bullpen. The projections favor Cleveland significantly, estimating a win probability of 59% with a team total of around 4.05 runs, compared to Detroit’s 3.54 runs.
Given the Guardians’ edge in both starting pitching and bullpen depth, alongside a more potent offense, they appear well-positioned to close out this series strongly. The Tigers will need Maeda to find his form and their bats to wake up to have any chance of stealing a win.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Zach McKinstry is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Tallying 80.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Gavin Williams places him the 11th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Detroit (#3-worst of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The Cleveland Guardians (19.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 101 games (+13.67 Units / 10% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)Daniel Schneemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 27 games (+7.60 Units / 28% ROI)