Get Bets and Betting Tips for Royals vs Orioles – 5/04/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Kansas City Royals on May 4, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, marking the third game of their series. The Orioles currently sit at 13-19, struggling this season, while the Royals hold a better record at 18-16. Baltimore’s offense ranks as the 20th best in MLB, and they are particularly weak in batting average and stolen bases, sitting 25th in both categories. Conversely, Kansas City’s offense ranks 29th overall, with their power output being notably dismal, as they sit at the bottom with just 18 home runs.

In their last matchup, the Orioles fell to the Royals, continuing their tough stretch. Baltimore’s Kyle Gibson is projected to take the mound, having started just one game this season with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 22.09. However, his xFIP of 5.93 suggests he might be due for a turnaround. Gibson is known for generating ground balls at a 60% rate, which could play to his advantage against a Royals lineup that struggles with power.

On the other hand, Kansas City’s Michael Lorenzen comes in with a solid 3.48 ERA and a 3-3 record over six starts. Despite being one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced statistics, his performance has been decent, although projections indicate he may be due for regression.

Betting markets have placed the Orioles as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, indicating a close contest is expected. With an implied team total of 4.97 runs, it will be critical for Baltimore to capitalize on their opportunities, especially against a Royals team that has not shown much offensive firepower this season.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.6% compared to 51.7% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88.1-mph EV last season has dropped off to 84.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Kyle Gibson’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 7th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gunnar Henderson in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Baltimore’s 90.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #3 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.