Kansas City Royals
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-150
On June 3, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium in the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are coming off losses, with the Cardinals falling 8-1 on June 1 and the Royals losing 1-0 in their last matchup. Currently, the Cardinals hold a record of 33-26, while the Royals sit at 31-29, indicating that both teams are having respectable seasons.
The Cardinals are projected to start Andre Pallante, who has been an average pitcher this year with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 4.23. Pallante’s xFIP of 3.72 suggests he may have been somewhat unlucky this season, hinting at potential improvements. In contrast, his opponent, Michael Lorenzen, has struggled, with a 3-6 record and a higher ERA of 4.33. Lorenzen’s recent outing saw him allowing 6 earned runs over just 5 innings, showcasing his inconsistency.
Despite the Cardinals ranking 10th in MLB offensive performance, they have been hindered by a 25th rank in home runs and a 24th in stolen bases, which raises questions about their power potential. The Royals, meanwhile, rank 26th in overall offense and dead last in home runs, which could play into Pallante’s strength as a groundball pitcher, keeping the ball out of the air against a weak-hitting lineup.
Oddsmakers have made the Cardinals the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, suggesting they have a solid chance against the Royals. With Pallante’s average projections and the Cardinals’ home advantage, this matchup could tilt in St. Louis’s favor despite their recent struggles.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Kyle Isbel’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.1-mph mark last year has lowered to 85.5-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kansas City Royals bats collectively grade out 29th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 6.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Andre Pallante has relied on his slider 7% more often this season (24.8%) than he did last season (17.8%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Arenado are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-150)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games (+12.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 48 games (+24.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 52% ROI)