Get Bets and Betting Tips for Rockies vs Braves – 9/05/2024

Colorado Rockies

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Atlanta Braves

As two National League rivals face off at Truist Park, the Atlanta Braves look to continue their winning ways against the Colorado Rockies on September 5, 2024. The Braves are currently enjoying an above-average season with a record of 76-63, while the Rockies have struggled significantly, sitting at 51-89. After defeating the Rockies 5-2 in their last game on September 4, the Braves will aim to build momentum against a team that has shown vulnerability throughout the season.

The matchup features two starting pitchers with contrasting trajectories. Atlanta is set to start Reynaldo Lopez, who has been solid this year, boasting an 8-4 record and an impressive ERA of 2.00. Lopez’s strong performance has placed him among the 70th best starting pitchers in the league according to advanced stats, indicating he’s been above average. In his last outing on August 30, Lopez pitched effectively for 6 innings, allowing only 1 earned run and striking out 6 batters.

On the other hand, Colorado will counter with Austin Gomber, whose performance has been subpar, recording a 4-10 record and a less-than-ideal ERA of 4.69. Gomber’s struggles are compounded by an xERA of 5.22, suggesting a potential for further decline. With the Braves’ offense ranked 13th in MLB, driven by standout hitter Marcell Ozuna, they are well-positioned to exploit Gomber’s weaknesses.

The projections indicate that the Braves are favorites, with a high implied run total of 4.95 runs. As Atlanta’s offense continues to gel, they should capitalize on the Rockies’ pitching struggles in this critical series. A win for the Braves could reinforce their strong season and further distance themselves from Colorado’s ongoing difficulties.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Austin Gomber has used his curveball 5.4% more often this season (22.2%) than he did last season (16.8%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Brenton Doyle has been lucky this year, putting up a .342 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .041 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s fastball spin rate has dropped 120 rpm this year (2069 rpm) below where it was last season (2189 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Michael Harris II is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 114 games (+26.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 away games (+4.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 79% ROI)