Get Bets and Betting Tips for Phillies vs D-Backs – 8/11/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

On August 11, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Philadelphia Phillies in a pivotal matchup at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, with a solid record of 65-53, are currently in contention and looking to capitalize on yesterday’s impressive 11-1 victory over the Phillies. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast a strong 69-48 record, indicating they are also having a great season.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. So far this season, Kelly has an undefeated record of 2-0 with an excellent ERA of 2.19 over four starts. Despite a somewhat lower ranking of 60th among starting pitchers, he has been effective this year but is projected to pitch only 4.5 innings on average today, which is concerning. His low walk rate of 6.5% could be a significant advantage against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in the league for walks.

Cristopher Sanchez, starting for the Phillies, has a respectable record of 8-7 and an ERA of 3.27, placing him 37th among MLB starters. Sanchez, who projects to pitch 5.5 innings, has been unlucky this season, as indicated by his FIP of 2.76—reflecting a potential for better performance than his ERA suggests.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 5th in MLB, while the Phillies are slightly better at 8th. Ketel Marte has been a standout for Arizona, while Kyle Schwarber continues to lead the Phillies. The projections suggest that the Diamondbacks may struggle to keep pace with the Phillies’ high implied team total of 4.45 runs for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez will “start” for Philadelphia Phillies in today’s game but will fill the role of an opener and may not go more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Alec Bohm has compiled a .303 Expected Batting Average this year, placing in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Merrill Kelly has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.2% more often this season (67%) than he did last year (57.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Jake McCarthy is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+17.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 99 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 46 games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)