Get Bets and Betting Tips for Mariners vs Tigers – 8/13/2024

Seattle Mariners

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Detroit Tigers

On August 13, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Seattle Mariners at Comerica Park for the first game of their series. Currently, the Tigers sit at 56-63, struggling to find their footing this season with a ranking of 28th in offensive performance. Meanwhile, the Mariners, boasting a 63-56 record, are performing above average and aiming to solidify their playoff positioning.

In their last games, the Tigers emerged victorious against the San Francisco Giants with a close 5-4 win, a notable feat for a team that has had its share of ups and downs. The Mariners, however, showcased their offensive power by trouncing the New York Mets 12-1, highlighting their ability to put runs on the board.

The match will feature standout pitchers: Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and George Kirby for the Mariners. Skubal is having an elite season, ranking 1st among MLB starters with a 2.57 ERA and a 13-4 win-loss record in 23 starts. His ability to strike out batters (30.1% K rate) could be a significant advantage against a Mariners lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. Meanwhile, Kirby, while also performing well with a 3.13 ERA, holds an 8-8 record and will need to step up against a potent opposing pitcher.

With the current odds favoring Detroit at -130, indicating only a slight edge in the projections, this matchup promises to be a low-scoring affair as evidenced by a Game Total set at just 7.0 runs. The projections suggest the Tigers might only score around 3.74 runs, reflecting their struggles at the plate. However, with Skubal on the mound, the Tigers will aim to leverage their starting pitcher’s elite status to turn the tide in their favor.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  George Kirby’s 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 86th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Despite posting a .299 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky given the .059 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .358.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The 9.3% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #4 club in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Generating 18.7 outs per game per started this year on average, Tarik Skubal checks in at the 98th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)
  Gio Urshela has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+180)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+10.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+16.50 Units / 150% ROI)