Get Bets and Betting Tips for Cardinals vs Mets – 4/17/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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New York Mets

On April 17, 2025, the New York Mets will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Mets currently sit at 11-7, enjoying a solid start to the season, while the Cardinals are at a modest 9-9. In their previous game, the Mets were riding high after a notable offensive display, which they’ll need to replicate against a Cardinals team that boasts the 4th best offense in MLB this season.

The Mets are projected to send Griffin Canning to the mound, who has had a mixed start to his season with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 4.20. Canning’s peripherals, however, tell a different story, suggesting he has been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 5.31 xERA. He will need to improve on his projections, which indicate he might allow 2.5 earned runs while striking out only 4.6 batters on average, particularly against a potent Cardinals lineup that ranks 1st in batting average.

Opposing him is Andre Pallante, who has been impressive this year with a 2-0 record and an outstanding 2.20 ERA. Pallante’s projections suggest he’ll allow 2.3 earned runs, but he may struggle with strikeouts, averaging only 3.9. Still, his performance thus far positions him as a significant threat.

From a betting perspective, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a 56% implied win probability. Given the Cardinals’ offensive prowess, it could be a challenging matchup for Canning and the Mets, despite their positive season outlook. With the Game Total set at a modest 7.5 runs, the stage is set for an exciting clash between these two teams.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Andre Pallante’s 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.1-mph decrease from last year’s 94.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Alec Burleson has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last season has fallen to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the St. Louis Cardinals in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is quite a bit lower than their actual wOBA of .339 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Griffin Canning will surrender an average of 2 singles in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Brandon Nimmo has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.3-mph average to last year’s 93.1-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 81 games at home (+8.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 44% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)