Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+130
On June 21, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be a crucial matchup in the National League East. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Marlins sitting at 30-44 and the Braves slightly better at 34-40. The Marlins are coming off a rough stretch, while the Braves are looking to bounce back after a disappointing performance yesterday.
Projected starters for this game are Eury Perez for the Marlins and Grant Holmes for the Braves. Eury Perez has had an inconsistent year, with an ERA of 6.43 and a Win/Loss record of 0-1. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he might have been unlucky, as his xFIP sits at 5.85, indicating potential for improvement. However, Perez’s projection of allowing 2.3 earned runs over 4.6 innings is concerning, especially against a Braves lineup that ranks 17th in offensive capability.
On the other hand, Grant Holmes has been more effective, with a solid ERA of 3.97 and a Win/Loss record of 3-6. His 6.0 innings pitched projection is average, but he also projects to strike out 6.6 batters, which could be critical against a Marlins offense that ranks 19th in the league.
The Marlins’ lack of power is evident, as they rank 26th in home runs, while the Braves, although not dominant, possess a slightly better offensive ranking. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. With the Marlins as underdogs at +125, there might be value in betting on them to outperform expectations, especially given the projections suggest they could surprise against a Braves team that has been inconsistent.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Grant Holmes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Grant Holmes’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (61.2% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Matt Olson may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-150)The Atlanta Braves projected offense projects as the 4th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Typically, batters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Grant Holmes.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Miami Marlins – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+7.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)