Get Bets and Betting Tips for Astros vs Reds – 9/02/2024

Houston Astros

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 2, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a pivotal matchup. The Reds, sitting at 65-73, are struggling this season and will face a tough challenge against the 75-62 Astros, who are currently in the playoff hunt. In their last game, the Reds edged out the Milwaukee Brewers with a close 4-3 victory, while the Astros cruised to a commanding 7-2 win over the Kansas City Royals.

Projected starters Julian Aguiar and Justin Verlander present an intriguing contrast. Aguiar, ranked 268th among MLB starters, has had a rocky season, with a 6.43 ERA and a troubling 7.89 xERA indicating he may have been lucky in some outings. In his last start, he was hit hard, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings. He projects to struggle again, averaging only 3.8 innings pitched today and allowing 2.4 earned runs.

On the other hand, Verlander has been solid, ranking 62nd among starters with a 4.16 ERA. Although he has faced challenges this season, his experience could give the Astros an edge. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 3 earned runs, which is below average but still a step up from Aguiar’s projections.

The Astros’ offense, ranked 11th overall and boasting a .314 batting average, is in a strong position to capitalize on Aguiar’s vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the projections suggest the Reds have a win probability that exceeds what the betting market indicates, hinting at potential value for those willing to bet on the underdog. With a game total set at a high 9.5 runs, fans can expect an exciting contest at Great American Ball Park.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Justin Verlander’s 2402-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Jon Singleton’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 80.1-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Julian Aguiar – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Julian Aguiar has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 10 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Extreme groundball batters like Amed Rosario are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 16.4° angle is among the highest in MLB this year (#1 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+14.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)