Game Forecast: Rockies vs Pirates Match Preview – 8/24/25

Colorado Rockies

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 24, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Colorado Rockies at PNC Park in a matchup between two struggling squads. Both teams have had dismal seasons, with the Pirates sitting at 56-74 and the Rockies even worse at 37-93. In their last meeting, the Pirates managed a solid victory, winning 5-1, highlighting their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities despite ranking as the 30th offense in MLB.

The Pirates will send ace Paul Skenes to the mound, who is projected as one of the top pitchers this season, currently ranked 2nd among approximately 350 pitchers. His outstanding 2.16 ERA and ability to average 7.8 strikeouts are impressive, although a higher xFIP of 3.08 suggests he’s had a bit of good fortune this year. Skenes’ last outing was particularly noteworthy, as he threw 6 innings against the Rockies, allowing only 2 earned runs and striking out 8 batters.

On the other side, the Rockies counter with McCade Brown, who has struggled mightily this season and is projected to be one of the weakest pitchers in MLB. His ability to pitch an average of 4.7 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs reflects his inadequacy against a more competent Pirates lineup.

Pittsburgh’s chances seem bolstered by their solid recent performance and the extreme discrepancy in pitching quality. Despite the Pirates’ offense ranking 30th overall, Skenes’ elite status on the mound could give them an edge on this day, as the odds suggest a high implied team total of 4.68 runs against a Rockies squad that looks to be limping into this matchup. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, there’s potential value in backing the Pirates at -290 on the moneyline.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• McCade Brown – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, McCade Brown has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -11.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mickey Moniak has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Colorado Rockies hitters jointly rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 8th-worst) in regard to their 88.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Paul Skenes’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (51.7% compared to 32.4% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Jack Suwinski has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .166 mark is considerably lower than his .225 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 99 games (+19.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-190/+145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 59 away games (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+275/-390)
  Jordan Beck has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)