Game Forecast: Reds vs Pirates Head-to-Head Analysis Monday May 19th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds on May 19, 2025, in a matchup that carries significance for both teams as they seek to improve their standings in the National League Central. Currently, the Pirates sit at 15-32, struggling to find consistency, while the Reds hold a slightly better record at 24-24, hovering around .500. The Pirates are coming off a tough 1-0 loss to the Reds on May 18, and they will look to bounce back in this first game of the series.

Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, bringing a 1-5 record and a 4.15 ERA into this start. Despite his struggles, Keller’s recent outing on May 13 was an encouraging sign, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters. However, his overall performance has been inconsistent, and advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky this season, with a 4.78 xERA indicating potential regression.

On the other hand, Cincinnati will counter with Nick Lodolo, who has been performing well with a 3.42 ERA and a 3-4 record. Lodolo’s recent form is solid, though his last start on May 14 saw him allow 3 earned runs in just 5 innings. The projections suggest he may face challenges against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB, struggling significantly in key areas like batting average and home runs.

With both teams aiming to gain momentum, the Pirates’ ability to capitalize on Keller’s potential against a high-strikeout Reds lineup could be crucial. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. As the Pirates look to turn their season around, this game presents a pivotal opportunity against a Reds team that has shown some offensive prowess.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Nick Lodolo’s change-up percentage has spiked by 5% from last season to this one (16.5% to 21.5%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (93.2 mph) below where it was last season (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jared Triolo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 95.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)