Game Forecast: Reds vs Pirates Head-to-Head Analysis Monday May 19th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds are set to face off for the first game of their series on May 19, 2025, at PNC Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Pirates sitting at 15-32 and the Reds slightly better at 24-24. Despite these records, the Reds hold a distinct advantage in recent performance, with their best hitter showcasing an impressive week, including 10 hits and 5 home runs, leading to a staggering .526 batting average and a 1.959 OPS.

Mitch Keller is slated to take the mound for the Pirates. Although Keller’s 4.15 ERA appears decent, deeper metrics indicate he might not be as lucky going forward, as his 4.78 xERA suggests he could face challenges. His performance has been marred by a 1-5 record over 9 starts. He struggles with a high projection of allowing 6 hits and 1.6 walks today, which could spell trouble against a Reds offense that ranks 13th in MLB.

On the other hand, Nick Lodolo, projected to start for the Reds, boasts a strong 3.42 ERA, which positions him as an average pitcher. His ability to limit earned runs while facing a high-strikeout Pirates lineup may give him the edge in this matchup. While the Reds offense ranks just 18th in batting average, their ability to generate home runs keeps them competitive.

According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Pirates’ offense is ranked 29th in MLB, a stark contrast to their National League Central rivals. The Pirates might find themselves in a tough spot if they cannot bolster their showing against Lodolo and the Reds’ average bullpen, ranked 17th overall. As betting markets reflect a close match with the Reds as slight favorites, there is potential for an upset if Keller can outshine expectations.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Nick Lodolo’s change-up percentage has spiked by 5% from last season to this one (16.5% to 21.5%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under Hits
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (93.2 mph) below where it was last season (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jared Triolo has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 94.7-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under Total Bases
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under Game Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)