Game Forecast: Rays vs Orioles Match Preview – 9/24/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

On September 24, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the second game of their three-game series. The Orioles are currently sitting at 74-83, while the Rays have a record of 76-81, placing both teams in a below-average position this season. The last outing saw the Orioles shut out the Rays with a commanding 6-0 victory, which could have implications for the momentum heading into this matchup.

The projected starting pitchers highlight a mismatch, with Tyler Wells taking the mound for Baltimore and Shane Baz representing Tampa Bay. Wells, ranked 108th among MLB starters, has had a solid, albeit lucky, season with an impressive 2.04 ERA over three starts. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he may be due for regression. In contrast, Baz stands at 46th in the rankings with a 4.99 ERA but boasts a more favorable 3.84 xFIP, indicating he might improve moving forward.

The Orioles’ offense ranks 21st overall and has struggled at the plate, notably with a batting average of just .236, which is 24th in the league. On the other hand, the Rays possess a slightly better offense, ranked 15th overall and 13th in batting average, but they will need to capitalize on Wells’ potential vulnerability.

Betting markets present an intriguing angle, as the Orioles’ moneyline is set at -120, implying a 52% chance of victory, while the Rays sit at +100, with a 48% win probability. Given the current projections and the recent form of both pitchers, this contest promises to be tightly contested. With no playoff spots on the line, the focus shifts to pride and performance as both teams look to finish the season strong.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph grades out in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Josh Lowe has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+105)
  The 2nd-weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tyler Wells – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Tallying 16.5 outs per outing since the start of last season on average, Tyler Wells places him the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 131 games (+25.28 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 145 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Samuel Basallo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+8.60 Units / 172% ROI)