Game Forecast: Pirates vs Nationals Match Preview – 9/12/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 12, 2025, both teams find themselves enduring disappointing seasons. The Nationals stand at 60-86, while the Pirates are slightly better at 64-83. This matchup is significant as it marks the first game of the series, with both teams eager to turn their fortunes around.

In their last outings, the Nationals suffered a tough 5-0 loss, while the Pirates fell narrowly, 3-2. The Nationals will rely on Brad Lord, who has had an average season with a 4.20 ERA and a 5-8 record. His advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 116th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is just a tick above average. In his latest start on September 6, Lord pitched well, going six innings with only one earned run, striking out seven. However, his projections for this game show some concerning trends, such as allowing an average of 5.0 hits and 1.7 walks.

On the mound for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller, who has struggled this season, posting a 6-14 record and a 4.16 ERA. Keller’s last performance was solid, allowing just two earned runs over six innings, but his overall ranking suggests he is below-average. Both pitchers are right-handed, which adds an interesting layer to this matchup.

Washington’s offense ranks 23rd overall in MLB, while Pittsburgh’s offense sits at the bottom, ranked 30th. The Nationals have shown more promise recently, particularly from their best hitter, who has been on fire with a .409 batting average over the last week. This could give the Nationals an edge against Keller, who features a low-walk rate and may struggle against a lineup that is not overly patient.

With betting markets setting the moneyline at -110 for both teams, this game is expected to be close. The projected game total sits at 8.5 runs, aligning with the offenses’ recent struggles. Both teams will be looking to gain an early advantage in this series, making this matchup one to watch.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this year (93.4 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Despite posting a .300 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Oneil Cruz has suffered from bad luck given the .052 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit grade out 24th- in the majors for power this year when using their 7.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Recording 14.1 outs per GS this year on average, Bradley Lord ranks in the 8th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Daylen Lile is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 124 games (+23.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)