Game Forecast: Pirates vs Cubs Match Preview – 9/2/24

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 2, 2024, they find themselves in a crucial stretch of the season, sitting at 71-66, which is above average for this time of year. Meanwhile, the Pirates, at 63-73, are still searching for consistency. This matchup is significant, not just for the standings but as the first game in a series that could impact both teams’ late-season strategies.

In their last game, the Cubs fell short, while the Pirates also struggled, highlighting their ongoing challenges. As both teams look to reset, the Cubs will lean on their projected starter, Jameson Taillon, who has had a mixed season. Despite the advanced-stat Power Rankings placing Taillon at 151st among starting pitchers, he’s shown moments of promise with a solid 3.85 ERA this year. However, he’s projected to struggle today, allowing an average of 4.8 hits and 1.2 walks per game, which could give the Pirates an opening.

On the other side, the Pirates will start Jared Jones, who ranks 69th among his peers. Though Jones has been below average in his innings pitched, he carries a respectable 3.88 ERA and projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs today. The Pirates offense, struggling at 24th in MLB, will need to capitalize on any mistakes Taillon makes.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 14th overall, boosted by Dansby Swanson’s recent hot streak, where he has posted impressive numbers over the past week. This could be vital against a Pirates lineup that continues to falter. With a low game total set at 7.5 runs, the Cubs have an average implied team total of 4.04 runs, suggesting they might have the upper hand today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Jones to throw 81 pitches in today’s game (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Jameson Taillon will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
  Nico Hoerner has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph dropping to 81.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+14.25 Units / 51% ROI)