Game Forecast: Cubs vs Braves Head-to-Head Analysis Monday September 8th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Atlanta Braves

On September 8, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park in what marks the beginning of their series. The Braves, with a record of 64-79, are struggling this season, while the Cubs sit comfortably at 81-62, enjoying a solid year. In their last games, the Braves suffered a heavy loss, falling 18-2, while the Cubs lost a closer contest, 6-3.

Bryce Elder is projected to take the mound for the Braves. Though he recently pitched a strong game, going 7 innings with 0 earned runs against the Cubs on September 3, his overall season numbers tell a different story. Elder’s ERA stands at 5.54, ranking him as the 178th best starting pitcher in MLB. He has been unlucky this year, as his 4.17 xFIP suggests he could perform better going forward. However, he faces a Cubs lineup that ranks 9th in the league, making it a tough matchup.

On the other side, Shota Imanaga is slated to start for the Cubs. With a solid 3.15 ERA and a 9-6 record, Imanaga has been an average pitcher this season, but he has the potential to capitalize on the Braves’ struggles. The projections indicate that he may allow 2.9 earned runs today, which could be an advantage against a Braves offense that ranks 15th overall but has been inconsistent.

Given the Cubs’ favorable position and the Braves’ recent performance, the betting markets suggest a close contest, with Chicago holding a slight edge. The projected game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Shota Imanaga has used his slider 7.4% more often this season (15.1%) than he did last year (7.7%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.8-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Marcell Ozuna has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph dropping to 81-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 71 of their last 138 games (+15.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+8.15 Units / 163% ROI)