Game Forecast: Blue Jays vs Tigers Match Preview – 7/25/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers

On July 25, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Toronto Blue Jays in a pivotal matchup between two teams enjoying strong seasons. The Tigers currently hold a record of 60-44, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 61-42. With both teams in contention for playoff positioning, this series is crucial for maintaining momentum. In their most recent game, the Tigers suffered a tough loss, but their powerful offense ranks 9th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs.

Starting for the Tigers is Keider Montero, who has had a mixed season. His 4-2 record and average ERA of 4.28 suggest he might not be a shutdown pitcher, especially as he faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 6th in MLB offensively. Montero’s low strikeout rate (16.9 K%) could be a concern, particularly against a Blue Jays offense that excels in making contact. The projections indicate he may struggle today, possibly allowing 3.2 earned runs over 5.2 innings pitched.

On the other side, Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays. With a 6-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.87, he has been effective this season. However, projections suggest he too could face challenges, allowing 3.0 earned runs over 5.3 innings, indicating a potential for a high-scoring affair. The Blue Jays’ offense, which boasts the top batting average in MLB, looks to exploit Montero’s weaknesses while maintaining their position in the playoff race.

As both teams look to solidify their playoff aspirations, fans can expect an engaging matchup at Comerica Park, with the stakes high and both lineups capable of delivering fireworks.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Jose Berrios has recorded 17.3 outs per start this year, grading out in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Will Wagner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Will Wagner has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph to 98.3-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Keider Montero has used his sinker 13.9% more often this season (21.6%) than he did last year (7.7%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.272) may lead us to conclude that Javier Baez has experienced some positive variance this year with his .318 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 60 of their last 104 games (+15.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 100 games (+19.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 62% ROI)