Game Breakdown: Padres vs Cubs Head-to-Head Insights 10/2/2025

-105O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-115

Yu Darvish – Over/Under 9.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Compared to league average, Yu Darvish has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -13.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Jake Cronenworth has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph to 95.8-mph in the past week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Jameson Taillon’s cutter usage has decreased by 10.6% from last year to this one (25% to 14.4%) .
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.384) may lead us to conclude that Seiya Suzuki has suffered from bad luck this year with his .344 actual wOBA.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 68 games at home (+15.75 Units / 14% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 158 games (+13.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Yu Darvish – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-130/+100)
Yu Darvish has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)

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