Game Breakdown: Mariners vs Athletics Head-to-Head Insights 7/28/2025

Seattle Mariners

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on July 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in a pivotal matchup. The Mariners currently hold a record of 56-50, sitting above .500, while the Athletics struggle at 46-62. This series opener presents an opportunity for Oakland to build on their recent success; they won decisively against the Mariners yesterday, taking the game 7-1.

On the mound, the Athletics will start JP Sears, who has had a challenging season with a 7-8 record and an ERA of 4.98. Despite his struggles, advanced projections suggest Sears may improve, as evidenced by his lower 4.40 SIERA and 3.95 xERA, indicating that he might have faced some bad luck this year. However, he will need to be particularly cautious against a powerful Mariners lineup that ranks 5th in MLB with 148 home runs.

Luis Castillo is set to pitch for Seattle. With a solid ERA of 3.30 and a 7-6 record, Castillo has been one of the more reliable arms in the league. Though projections indicate he might face some regression, his ability to strike out batters (5.1 per game) will be a key factor in this contest.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 8th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Mariners are 10th, boasting a strong power presence. With a game total set at a high 10.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a competitive one, with both teams projected to score over 5 runs. Given their recent form and the power disparity, the Athletics have a chance to capitalize on their home advantage in this intriguing battle.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Luis Castillo’s 2212-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 14th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Seattle Mariners have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears will “start” for Athletics in today’s game but will fill the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Carlos Cortes has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 103 games (+9.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 96 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+270/-380)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 away games (+17.40 Units / 193% ROI)