San Francisco Giants
Pittsburgh Pirates
(+100/-120)+120
On August 5, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the San Francisco Giants at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates, currently sitting at 49-64, are having a challenging season and rank 30th in MLB in both team offense and home runs, which paints a grim picture for their playoff aspirations. The Giants, at 56-57, are in a similar boat, with their offense ranking 24th overall. However, they do have their ace, Logan Webb, on the mound, who is projected to pitch 6.2 innings and allow just 2.1 earned runs, showcasing his elite status as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB.
In their last matchup, the Pirates managed to edge out the Giants with a narrow 5-4 victory, giving them a slight morale boost. Michael Burrows, projected to start for the Pirates, has had an inconsistent season with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 3.88. However, he pitched well in his last outing, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run, 7 strikeouts, and 3 hits allowed.
Despite the Pirates’ struggles, their bullpen ranks 6th in MLB, which could play a pivotal role in close games. The projections indicate that while the Pirates’ offense is weak, their lack of power might be mitigated against Webb, who is a high-groundball pitcher.
The Giants are favored with a moneyline of -140, but given their recent performance and the Pirates’ potential for an upset, this game could be tightly contested. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the pitching matchups and how they may influence the final score.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Logan Webb’s change-up usage has dropped by 8.3% from last season to this one (30.9% to 22.6%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Matt Chapman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)In today’s game, Rafael Devers is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (82nd percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+120)Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Tommy Pham is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Henry Davis, Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 110 games (+19.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)