St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)+110
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 12, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race in the National League Central. The Brewers currently stand at 36-33, while the Cardinals hold a slight edge at 36-32. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and with both teams having above-average seasons, fans can expect a competitive atmosphere at American Family Field.
In their last outing, Sonny Gray delivered a stellar performance, securing a win and continuing his impressive season with a 7-1 record and a 3.35 ERA. Gray, ranked 26th among MLB starting pitchers, is set to face off against Jacob Misiorowski, who struggles at 180th in the same rankings. Misiorowski’s projections indicate he will pitch around 4.6 innings and allow approximately 2.1 earned runs, which could be a concern for the Brewers given their offensive struggles. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in MLB in both team batting average and home runs, which does not bode well against a quality pitcher like Gray.
Conversely, the Cardinals boast a much stronger offense, ranking 9th overall and 4th in team batting average. Their best hitter has been on fire lately, recording 11 hits and 11 RBIs over the past week, showcasing his potential to capitalize on any mistakes from Misiorowski.
With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Brewers’ moneyline at +110, the betting markets suggest a close contest. However, the Brewers’ bullpen ranks 9th in MLB, which could provide them with an edge late in the game. This matchup promises to be a thrilling start to the series, with both teams eager to gain an early advantage.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)Sonny Gray’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Ivan Herrera has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.7-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph average.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Because groundball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over groundball batters, Jacob Misiorowski and his 33.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today’s outing facing 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Christian Yelich has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 28.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 13.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.2% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+540/-950)Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.50 Units / 208% ROI)