Milwaukee Brewers
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+120
On April 9, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Coors Field in the second game of their series. The Rockies are struggling with a record of 2-8 this season, while the Brewers sit at 6-5, showcasing a more competitive edge. In their last matchup, the Rockies were defeated by the Brewers, which adds pressure on Colorado to turn their season around.
The Rockies are projected to start Antonio Senzatela, a right-handed pitcher with a 0-1 record and a stellar ERA of 0.00 this year. However, the advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest he ranks as the 257th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is among the worst in the league. Senzatela’s xFIP of 4.83 suggests he has been fortunate so far, and he projects to struggle, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs over about 4.9 innings.
On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Tyler Alexander, a left-handed pitcher who holds a 1-0 record and a solid ERA of 2.00. Despite his impressive ERA, his xFIP of 5.13 raises questions about sustainability. Alexander’s high strikeout rate of 27.3 K% could pose a challenge for the Rockies, who have the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB.
The Rockies’ offense ranks 20th overall and is particularly lacking in power, sitting 26th in home runs. Conversely, the Brewers’ offense might be underwhelming at 21st, but they have shown flashes of effectiveness, including a recent hot streak from their best hitter, who has been phenomenal with 10 hits, 6 runs, and 3 home runs over the past week.
With a Game Total set at a high 10.5 runs, the Rockies may find themselves under pressure to outscore the Brewers. Currently, the Rockies are listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, indicating a potential for value given their strong home field advantage and talented bullpen, ranked 7th best in MLB.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)Tyler Alexander is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Brice Turang has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 2.5% rate last season to 12% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Milwaukee Brewers project to score the most runs on the slate today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Antonio Senzatela has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 57.5% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Kyle Farmer’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.3-mph average last year has dropped to 84.6-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Projected catcher Hunter Goodman profiles as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+120)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 65 games at home (+8.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-145)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Sean Bouchard – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Sean Bouchard has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.75 Units / 31% ROI)