Game Breakdown: Brewers vs D-Backs Head-to-Head Insights 4/11/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on April 11, 2025, both teams come in with matching records of 7-6, showcasing above-average performances this season. The Diamondbacks are enjoying a strong start, currently ranked 2nd in MLB for offensive production, while the Brewers sit at 12th. In their last outing, the Diamondbacks dominated with a 9-0 shutout victory, while the Brewers fell to a 7-2 loss, highlighting the contrasting momentum heading into this matchup.

On the mound, Arizona will send Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled with a 6.10 ERA this season, but his 2.00 xFIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround. Rodriguez has shown flashes of brilliance, evidenced by his 12 strikeouts in his last start on April 5, albeit he allowed 4 earned runs over 5 innings. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters.

Jose Quintana, on the other hand, is projected to start for the Brewers. His struggles are evident, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB, with an average projected outing of just 4.8 innings and 2.6 earned runs allowed. Quintana’s last start was particularly rough, giving up 5 earned runs in only 3 innings pitched.

With the Diamondbacks’ potent offense and Rodriguez’s potential for improvement, they hold a favorable position. The projections indicate that Arizona is likely to exceed their implied team total of 4.62 runs, making them an attractive option for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 82.7 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+14.20 Units / 158% ROI)