Find Twins vs White Sox Value Bets and Betting Line – Monday March 31st, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins prepare for their matchup on March 31, 2025, both teams are struggling early in the season, with the White Sox holding a 1-2 record and the Twins at 0-3. The stakes might not seem high, but with both teams seeking momentum, this game could be pivotal in turning around their seasons.

In their last contest on March 30, the White Sox fell narrowly to the Twins by a score of 3-2, while the Twins were blown out 9-2 in their previous outing. Martin Perez, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a rough stretch, including a disastrous performance in his last start on September 29, 2024, where he allowed 6 earned runs over just 4 innings. His projections for today are less than encouraging, projecting him to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs with a concerning 4.7 hits and 1.8 walks.

On the other side, Chris Paddack, who is slated to start for the Twins, showed promise in his last start on July 14, 2024, but overall his recent work has been inconsistent. His projections show a slight edge, as he is expected to pitch 5.4 innings with a more favorable 2.2 earned runs allowed, despite also struggling with hits and walks.

Offensively, the White Sox rank an alarming 30th in MLB in several key categories, including team batting average and home runs. In contrast, the Twins sit at a respectable 11th in overall offensive rankings, showcasing a stronger lineup. The projections suggest the Twins could capitalize on the White Sox’s weak pitching and lackluster offense, with a high implied team total of 4.31 runs compared to the White Sox’s meager 3.19 runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Chris Paddack will wring up 16.1 outs today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Mickey Gasper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Hitting the ball to all fields is a crucial ability for batting average that Mickey Gasper has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his checking in at the 2nd percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.
  Explain: Hitters who are unable to spray the ball around the field tend to have weak bat control and are predictable for the opposing defense, making hits tougher to come by.
• Minnesota Twins hitters collectively rank 24th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Martin Perez’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (59% since the start of last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In terms of his home runs, Michael A. Taylor has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 10.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 103 games (+15.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.50 Units / 53% ROI)