Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Giants vs Nationals – 8/7/24

San Francisco Giants

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on August 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a critical series. Currently, the Nationals sit at 52-62 and are not in contention for a playoff spot, while the Giants hold a slightly better 57-58 record. In their previous matchup on August 6, the Nationals showcased their offensive prowess, defeating the Giants 11-5, which may provide momentum as they look to build on that success.

On the mound, the Nationals will send out Jake Irvin, who has struggled this season with an 8-9 record and a 3.56 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 125th best starting pitcher in MLB, Irvin’s low walk rate this year (6.0 BB%) could play to his advantage against the Giants, who rank 6th in the league for drawing walks. Meanwhile, Blake Snell of the Giants, a far more accomplished pitcher with a 1-3 record and a 4.29 ERA, recently dazzled with a complete game shutout and no-hitter, highlighting his capability to dominate opposing lineups.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 23rd in MLB this season, struggling particularly with home runs, sitting at 29th in that category. However, they’ve shown some speed on the basepaths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases. On the other side, the Giants rank 13th in overall offense but have also struggled with power, placing 23rd in home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections suggest that the Nationals may be undervalued as they look to capitalize on their recent victory and push for consistency against a Giants team that might still be reeling from their recent performance. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a tactical battle as both teams seek to re-establish their footing in the second half of the season.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Blake Snell’s fastball spin rate of 2453 rpm is in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (27.3) provides evidence that Tyler Fitzgerald has been very fortunate this year with his 47.1 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jake Irvin has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.6 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  James Wood has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Riley Adams has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 away games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)