Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Rockies – 9/18/24

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks continue their series on September 18, 2024, at Coors Field, the stakes are vastly different for these National League West rivals. With a record of 59-94, the Rockies are enduring a challenging season, whereas the Diamondbacks, at 84-68, are having a strong campaign. While the Rockies have been eliminated from division contention, Arizona is still aiming to secure a playoff berth, making each game crucial.

Yesterday, the Rockies managed to defy expectations with an 8-2 victory over Arizona, showcasing some offensive prowess despite their tough season. This win was a rare bright spot for Colorado, whose offense generally ranks 19th in MLB according to Power Rankings, yet their lineup has shown flashes of potential, particularly with Brenton Doyle leading the charge.

On the mound, Colorado will start Austin Gomber, who ranks 224th among starting pitchers. Despite a 5-10 record and a 4.44 ERA, Gomber has been somewhat fortunate, with a 4.95 xERA suggesting regression might be on the horizon. His control could play a key role, as he faces a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 5th in drawing walks. However, this advantage might be negated by Gomber’s low walk rate (5.6% BB%).

Opposing him is Eduardo Rodriguez, the Diamondbacks’ lefty, with a 2-3 record and a concerning 5.50 ERA. Though his xFIP of 4.88 suggests some bad luck, Rodriguez’s higher strikeout potential against a Rockies lineup prone to strikeouts might give him an edge.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the top-ranked offense, powered by Corbin Carroll, whose consistent performance has been vital. Randal Grichuk, riding a hot streak with a .583 average and three homers over the last week, adds further danger to the Rockies’ pitching.

Despite yesterday’s setback, the Diamondbacks remain favored in this matchup, with betting odds reflecting a 62% implied win probability. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives Arizona a slightly lower 59% chance to claim victory, hinting at the possibility of another surprise from the Rockies.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Eduardo Rodriguez will concede an average of 3.33 earned runs in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Eugenio Suarez has big-time power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber has a pitch-to-contact profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to score the most runs (6.99 on average) of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Austin Gomber’s curveball percentage has risen by 5.4% from last season to this one (16.8% to 22.2%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Michael Toglia has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.3-mph to 94.9-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .322 overall projected rate, the .292 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 16 games at home (+16.00 Units / 81% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 106 games (+26.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+9.80 Units / 12% ROI)