St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
(-105/-115)-185
As the Milwaukee Brewers gear up to face the St. Louis Cardinals on September 12, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back after tough losses in their previous games. The Brewers, currently leading the National League Central with a solid 89-58 record, are riding high on a great season, while the Cardinals sit at 72-75, having an average year by comparison.
The Brewers are projected to start Quinn Priester, who boasts an impressive 12-2 record and a solid 3.25 ERA this season. Priester has shown himself to be a high-groundball pitcher, which could work in his favor against a Cardinals offense that struggles with power—ranking 28th in MLB with just 138 home runs this year. This matchup seems favorable for Priester, especially given the Cardinals’ low strikeout rate, which may not allow Andre Pallante to capitalize on his strengths as a low-strikeout pitcher. Pallante, who has a 6-13 record and a less-than-stellar 5.28 ERA, will need to find a way to navigate a potent Brewers offense that ranks 9th in MLB.
Despite the Brewers’ recent 6-3 loss, their offense has been consistent, ranking 3rd in team batting average. Their best hitter has been on fire lately, posting a .471 batting average over the last week, which includes two home runs. This offensive strength could prove pivotal against Pallante, who is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs today.
With the Brewers as significant betting favorites and a high implied team total of 4.57 runs, this game presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on the Brewers’ strengths against a Cardinals team that has struggled to find its footing this season.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Because groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante (58.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Ivan Herrera has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph average.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- St. Louis Cardinals batters as a group place 23rd- in the league for power this year when judging by their 8% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Quinn Priester must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 57.8% of the time, ranking in the 76th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of St. Louis (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-185)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 102 games (+29.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)