Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
(-120/+100)-150
As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on July 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive series. The Braves, sitting at 39-46 this season, are struggling with a below-average record, while the Angels are slightly above .500 at 42-43. This matchup holds significance, especially as the Braves are projected to start Bryce Elder, who has been inconsistent with a 2-5 record and a troubling ERA of 5.82.
In their last outing, the Braves faced off against the Angels and managed to take the win, showcasing some much-needed momentum. Elder, however, has struggled to find his groove, ranking as the 200th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, which places him among the lower echelon of pitchers. What may play to his advantage is that he is a low-strikeout pitcher facing an Angels lineup known for its high strikeout rate, ranked 2nd in MLB.
On the other hand, the Angels will counter with Jose Soriano, who boasts a solid 5-5 record and a respectable ERA of 3.99. Soriano is ranked 36th among MLB starters, indicating he is performing well. Despite the Angels’ offensive struggles, particularly in batting average where they rank 26th, they hold the 5th position in home runs, which could pose a challenge for Elder.
The projections suggest a high-scoring affair with a game total set at 9.0 runs. The Braves have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs, indicating that oddsmakers see potential in their lineup, despite their overall poor offensive rankings. With both teams looking to gain an edge, this matchup could provide excitement for fans and bettors alike.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Jose Soriano’s 96.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 97.7-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jo Adell has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99-mph average to last season’s 94.1-mph EV.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jorge Soler hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Given that groundball batters have a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Bryce Elder and his 48.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in this outing facing 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-150)The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 58 games (+16.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+130)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 48 games (+14.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 36% ROI)