Find the Best Player Prop Bets for White Sox vs Cubs – 5/18/25

Chicago White Sox

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Chicago Cubs

On May 18, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will look to continue their strong season as they host the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are currently 27-19, showcasing their prowess with the 4th best offense in MLB. In contrast, the White Sox are struggling this year at 14-32, currently occupying the last spot in the league. The Cubs won their previous matchup against the White Sox by a score of 7-3 on May 17, further emphasizing the disparity between the two teams.

Projected starters Colin Rea and Jonathan Cannon both throw from the right side. Rea enters the game with a solid 3-0 record and an impressive 2.48 ERA, though his 4.05 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck this season. He projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs, which bodes well for the Cubs’ chances. Meanwhile, Cannon, with a 2-4 record and a 3.60 ERA, has also shown signs of luck with a higher 4.72 xFIP. He faces a daunting challenge against a Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs, as Cannon’s tendency to give up fly balls could lead to trouble.

Despite being at the bottom of the Power Rankings, the White Sox offense has shown some fight, but they rank 30th in the league overall, making it difficult to see them turning the tide against a strong Cubs team. With the Cubs favored heavily, their implied team total of 4.68 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Cannon’s vulnerabilities. As the game approaches, the Cubs appear well-positioned to extend their success against their crosstown rivals.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+220)
  The Chicago White Sox infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Michael A. Taylor has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 89.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Joshua Palacios has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-260)
  Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Typically, hitters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jonathan Cannon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-260)
  The 4th-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)