Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Mariners vs Phillies – 8/20/25

Seattle Mariners

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies, sitting well above .500 at 73-53, continue to solidify their position for a playoff run, currently ranked 3rd in MLB for team batting average and boasting the 8th best offense. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners, with a record of 68-59, are in contention but face challenges with their less dominant offense, ranking 19th in batting average despite a powerful lineup capable of hitting home runs, currently sitting 3rd in that category.

In their last matchup, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive prowess, and will look to build on that momentum at Citizens Bank Park on August 20, 2025. The Phillies are expected to start Jesus Luzardo, a left-handed pitcher ranked 38th among MLB starters. Luzardo is known for his high strikeout rate, facing a Mariners lineup that struggles with strikeouts, giving him an edge in this matchup. Although he’s had an average season with an ERA of 4.21, his 3.38 xFIP indicates he might have been unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement.

On the other side, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, rated 88th among MLB pitchers. Castillo has performed well this season with a commendable ERA of 3.48, but projections indicate he may regress, particularly given his higher expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 4.13.

The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -140, suggesting confidence in their ability to extend their winning streak, especially given their strong bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, paired with the Mariners’ 5th-ranked bullpen. While the Game Total sits at an average 8.5 runs, expect a competitive battle where the Phillies’ offensive firepower and Luzardo’s potential for strikeouts could set the tone.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 95.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average hurler, Jesus Luzardo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Brandon Marsh has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in baseball: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games (+12.26 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 116 games (+11.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 58% ROI)