Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Cardinals vs Red Sox – Sunday April 06, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox will host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 6, 2025, in the second game of a double-header at Fenway Park. The Red Sox sit at 5-4 this season, enjoying a solid start, while the Cardinals are currently 4-4, finding themselves in the middle of the pack. After the Red Sox secured a thrilling 13-9 victory over the Cardinals yesterday, both teams will be looking for an edge in this matchup.

Projected starters Hunter Dobbins and Miles Mikolas both face challenges on the mound. Dobbins, ranked as the 200th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, is expected to pitch approximately 4.4 innings, allowing about 2.2 earned runs. His numbers suggest that he may struggle to keep the Cardinals’ potent offense at bay. Boston’s bullpen ranks 11th in MLB, providing some support for Dobbins if he falters early.

On the other hand, Miles Mikolas brings a respectable 3.38 ERA into this contest, despite his 4.73 xFIP indicating he might have benefited from some luck thus far. He’s projected to pitch longer at 5.5 innings but is also anticipated to allow 3.1 earned runs. With an average of 6.0 hits allowed, he’ll need to tighten up against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 17th in overall offensive strength.

The Cardinals boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by a 1st place ranking in team batting average. Despite a lack of speed on the bases, their hitters have the ability to find gaps and make contact. In contrast, the Red Sox’s offense persists with a 19th place team batting average and struggles with home runs, ranking 30th. However, their implied team total of 4.97 suggests that oddsmakers see potential for offensive productivity today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With 6 hitters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Miles Mikolas should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+1200/-8000)
  Alec Burleson’s footspeed has declined this season. His 25.48 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 22.58 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (20.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Trevor Story generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 club in the game since the start of last season by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)
• Kristian Campbell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Kristian Campbell has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+10.60 Units / 177% ROI)