Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Cardinals vs Pirates – 7/23/24

St. Louis Cardinals

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are set to clash at PNC Park on July 23, 2024. This National League Central matchup features a pair of teams with contrasting seasons. The Pirates, sitting at 51-49, are having an average year, while the Cardinals, at 52-48, are slightly above average.

On the mound, the Pirates will turn to their ace, Paul Skenes. Skenes has been nothing short of elite this season, boasting a perfect 6-0 record and an excellent 1.90 ERA over 11 starts. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB, underscoring his dominance. Despite his outstanding ERA, his peripheral indicators like a 2.41 SIERA suggest he has been somewhat fortunate and might regress.

Opposing him will be the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn, who has been serviceable with a 5-4 record and a 4.39 ERA over 19 starts. Lynn’s xERA of 4.92 implies luck has also been on his side, predicting potentially rougher outings ahead.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled mightily, ranking 27th in overall offense, 25th in batting average, 23rd in home runs, and 21st in stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals rank 17th overall in offense, 13th in batting average, and 19th in stolen bases, though they lag behind in home runs at 22nd.

Over the last week, Oneil Cruz has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh, hitting .375 with a 1.162 OPS, 6 hits, 7 RBIs, 1 home run, and 2 stolen bases in 4 games. For the Cardinals, Lars Nootbaar has been their standout, batting .357 with a 1.080 OPS, 5 hits, 1 home run, and 1 stolen base in 4 games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates are projected to score 4.72 runs on average in this game, while the Cardinals are projected at 3.97 runs. The Pirates are big betting favorites with a moneyline of -180, translating to an implied win probability of 62%. The projections also align with this, giving the Pirates a 61% chance of victory.

Both bullpens are solid, with the Pirates ranked 11th and the Cardinals 4th. However, given the starting pitching matchup and the current form of their hitters, the Pirates should have the edge in this contest.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Lance Lynn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Lance Lynn’s fastball spin rate of 2461 rpm grades out in the 89th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis grades out as the #3 club in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (44.1% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)
  Compared to league average, Paul Skenes has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.7 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 106.3-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 95.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in their last 6 away games (+6.80 Units / 74% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+7.55 Units / 64% ROI)