Toronto Blue Jays
Athletics
(-110/-110)+105
As the Toronto Blue Jays visit Sutter Health Park to face the Oakland Athletics on July 13, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting seasons. The Blue Jays boast a solid record of 55-40, positioning themselves favorably in the playoff race, while the Athletics languish at 40-57, struggling to find consistency. In their last game, the Athletics fell to the Blue Jays, who are riding a wave of strong performances.
On the mound, Oakland will send Jeffrey Springs, a left-hander with a Win/Loss record of 7-6 and an ERA of 3.92, which is solid despite his ranking as the 191st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, Springs has been fortunate this season, as his 4.79 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings but is expected to allow an average of 3.2 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Blue Jays lineup.
Toronto counters with Jose Berrios, who has a record of 5-3 and an ERA of 3.53. Although Berrios is also considered a below-average pitcher by some metrics, he projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow around 3.3 earned runs. The Blue Jays offense, ranking 10th in MLB, has the 2nd best batting average, giving them an edge in this matchup.
The Athletics’ offense ranks 13th overall, but they have shown power with the 7th most home runs in the league. However, their struggles with consistency may hinder them against a Blue Jays team that has an implied team total of 5.34 runs for this game. With the game total set at a high 10.0 runs, bettors should consider the potential for offensive fireworks, particularly from the Blue Jays, who are favored to win this contest.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)Jose Berrios’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this season (91.6 mph) below where it was last year (93.5 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)Alejandro Kirk has performed at a clip of 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 0th percentile for base-stealing.Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
- Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Davis Schneider pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jeffrey Springs has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.4 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Typically, hitters like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jose Berrios.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Athletics with a 26.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+6.27 Units / 9% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-125)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Leonardo Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Leonardo Jimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)