Washington Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-145
As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 10, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Cardinals stand at 49-44, enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals sit at 38-54, struggling significantly. This matchup is particularly crucial for the Cardinals as they aim to solidify their position in the standings.
In their most recent game, the Cardinals managed a victory, which adds to the momentum they hope to carry into this series. The Cardinals are projected to start Miles Mikolas, who, despite ranking 206th among starting pitchers, has shown signs of potential improvement. His 5.26 ERA suggests struggles, but his 4.72 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, hinting at better performance ahead. Mikolas is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, but his low strikeout rate of 16.0% could be a concern against a Nationals lineup that has been less prone to strikeouts.
On the other side, the Nationals will send Mike Soroka to the mound. Soroka, ranked 53rd among starters, also has a challenging season with a 5.40 ERA, but his 3.74 xFIP suggests he could be due for a turnaround as well. He projects to pitch approximately 5.1 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed, but his struggles with walks could be problematic against a Cardinals offense that ranks 14th overall.
The Cardinals are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.54 runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals, despite their low ranking in overall offense, could surprise with their ability to capitalize on Mikolas’s weaknesses. As both teams vie for a crucial win, this matchup promises to be an intriguing one.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Mike Soroka – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Mike Soroka’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.5 mph this year (93.5 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Bats such as Josh Bell with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Miles Mikolas who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Washington Nationals batters jointly place 23rd- in the league for power this year when judging by their 7.9% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-145)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 66 games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-165)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+7.50 Units / 107% ROI)