Find the Best Giants vs Mariners Picks and Odds – 8/24/2024

San Francisco Giants

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners host the San Francisco Giants in the second game of their interleague matchup at T-Mobile Park on August 24, 2024. Both teams enter with nearly identical records, as the Mariners sit at 65-64 while the Giants are slightly behind at 65-65, showcasing their struggles this season. In their previous game on August 23, the Mariners edged out the Giants 6-5, giving them a slim advantage in the series.

George Kirby is projected to take the mound for Seattle, boasting a 3.40 ERA and a solid 9-9 record across 26 starts this season. Kirby has performed well recently, allowing just 2 earned runs in his last outing, which spanned 6 innings. His ability to limit walks, with a low 3.1 BB%, positions him favorably against a Giants offense that ranks 6th in the league for walks. The projections suggest Kirby’s control could negate one of San Francisco’s primary strengths.

On the other side, Blake Snell is set to pitch for the Giants. Despite a decent 3.67 ERA, Snell has struggled with a 2-3 record over 14 starts this year. He recently had a strong performance as well, pitching 7 innings with just 1 earned run and 10 strikeouts. However, Snell faces a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts, presenting a potential challenge as his strikeout prowess might play into their weaknesses.

Offensively, the Mariners have been underwhelming, ranking 28th in overall offensive performance and dead last in batting average. Their best hitter this season, Cal Raleigh, has shown power but needs more consistency from the surrounding lineup. Conversely, the Giants rank 14th in offense, with Matt Chapman leading the charge.

With the projections favoring the Mariners slightly in this matchup, bettors might find value in Seattle, especially considering the Giants’ struggles against quality starting pitching. Expect another close contest as both teams vie for a crucial win to gain momentum in the series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Blake Snell’s curveball utilization has increased by 7.5% from last season to this one (19.8% to 27.3%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Mike Yastrzemski is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The San Francisco Giants have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Grant McCray, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  George Kirby’s 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 87th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez’s true offensive skill to be a .357, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .059 gap between that figure and his actual .298 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games at home (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 away games (+8.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 39 games (+18.15 Units / 26% ROI)