Find the Best Braves vs Marlins Picks and Odds – 6/20/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on June 20, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their underwhelming seasons. The Marlins sit at 29-44, while the Braves are slightly better at 34-39. Both teams have struggled recently, and a win in this series opener could provide a much-needed boost. Notably, the Braves are coming off a tough outing where their offense was stifled, further highlighting their need for improvement.

Projected starters Janson Junk for the Marlins and Bryce Elder for the Braves present an interesting matchup. Junk, despite ranking as the 183rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, has showcased an impressive 2.78 ERA this season. His success, however, may be partially due to luck, as indicated by his 4.66 xERA, suggesting he could regress moving forward. Junk’s ability to pitch 4.6 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs on average isn’t ideal, and he’ll need to find ways to manage the Braves’ offense effectively.

On the other hand, Bryce Elder comes into this game with a 4.45 ERA, which is considered average. While he has a decent record of 2-3 this year, his projections indicate he could perform better, especially given that he allows 2.5 earned runs on average and has a solid groundball rate of 52%. This could bode well for the Braves, as they face a Marlins lineup that ranks 26th in home runs this season.

As far as betting perspectives go, the Marlins are underdogs with an implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Braves have a higher total of 4.81 runs. With the stakes high and both teams in need of a victory, this matchup could deliver an intriguing battle on the diamond.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 13th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Sean Murphy has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-140)
  The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Janson Junk is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.1-mph EV last season has fallen to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.60 Units / 46% ROI)