Find the Best Braves vs Marlins Picks and Odds – 6/20/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

On June 20, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park for the first game of their series, both teams looking to improve upon lackluster seasons. The Marlins currently sit at 29-44, while the Braves are slightly better at 34-39. In their last outings, the Marlins dropped a close matchup 2-1 against their opponent, while the Braves enjoyed a decisive 7-1 victory.

For the Marlins, Janson Junk is set to take the mound. Despite his unimpressive ranking as the 182nd best starting pitcher in MLB, he boasts a solid ERA of 2.78 this season. The projections suggest he could be in for a challenging day, projecting 4.5 innings pitched with an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed. Interestingly, while Junk’s ERA shines, his 4.66 xERA hints at a likely regression, suggesting he may have had some good fortune so far.

The Braves will counter with Didier Fuentes, who is also right-handed and has a modest average projection of 5.0 innings pitched today. Both pitchers are expected to allow around 2.6 earned runs, but Fuentes could have an edge with a projected 4.1 strikeouts compared to Junk’s 3.2.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 19th in MLB, with a particularly poor showing in home runs, sitting 26th overall. In contrast, the Braves rank 17th in offense and are more capable of generating runs, as evidenced by their last game.

As the Marlins are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +125, this matchup presents an opportunity for the Braves to capitalize on their better overall performance, making them the team to watch as they look to extend their winning streak.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Sean Murphy has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-155)
  The Atlanta Braves projected offense ranks as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Janson Junk is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.1-mph EV last season has fallen to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+340/-500)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+7.90 Units / 88% ROI)