Find the Best Athletics vs Rangers Picks and Odds – 8/30/2024

Oakland Athletics

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics prepare for their matchup on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves underwhelming this season, with records of 63-71 and 58-76, respectively. In a battle of struggling squads, the Rangers are looking to build on their recent victory over the White Sox, where they managed a narrow 2-1 win. Meanwhile, the Athletics are reeling after a heartbreaking 10-9 loss to the Reds in their last game.

On the mound, Jon Gray is projected to start for the Rangers. Despite his recent struggles, including a disastrous outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 innings, Gray’s advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season. With a 4.32 ERA and a 3.51 FIP, he is positioned as a low-strikeout pitcher against an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in the league in strikeouts. This matchup could favor Gray, especially given that the Athletics’ offense has been inconsistent, ranking 21st overall and 27th in batting average.

On the flip side, JP Sears will take the hill for Oakland. He has also faced difficulties, notably giving up 5 earned runs in his last start, which was only 4 innings long. Sears’ projections indicate he’s likely to allow 3.0 earned runs while striking out just 4.4 batters on average, which may not bode well against a Rangers lineup that, despite ranking 24th in overall offense, has shown moments of power.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections lean toward the Rangers as significant favorites for this game, with a high implied team total of 4.62 runs. If the Rangers can capitalize on their pitching advantage and take advantage of the Athletics’ struggles at the plate, they could very well secure another win in this series opener.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears will “start” for Oakland Athletics today but will fill the role of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Jacob Wilson is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the weak infield defense of Texas (#28-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Daz Cameron, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Max Schuemann, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jon Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Jon Gray should be in good shape going up against 6 hitters in the projected batting order who share the same handedness in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+17.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)