Find the Best Astros vs Marlins Picks and Odds – 8/6/2025

Houston Astros

@

Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and the Houston Astros are set to face off in an intriguing interleague matchup on August 6, 2025, at LoanDepot Park. Both teams are vying for position, with the Marlins currently sitting at 55-57 and the Astros at 64-50. While the Marlins have been treading water this season, the Astros are enjoying a solid campaign, but both teams find themselves in a competitive environment.

In their last game, the Astros showcased their offensive prowess, which ranks as the 12th best in MLB, by putting together a strong performance. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ offense has struggled, ranking 20th overall. This stark contrast could heavily influence today’s game as the Astros look to capitalize on the Marlins’ weaknesses at the plate.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start Janson Junk, a right-handed pitcher who, despite being ranked 146th among MLB starters, has shown some resilience this season with a 3.86 ERA and a 5-2 win-loss record. However, he faces a tough challenge against a low-strikeout Astros lineup, which could work in their favor, as they are ranked 6th in fewest strikeouts.

The Astros counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who has had a rough start to his limited MLB career, posting a 5.59 ERA in just two games. The projections suggest that both pitchers may have been unlucky this season, indicating a potential for better performances going forward. However, the Marlins’ offense, ranking 20th, will need to capitalize on this opportunity against a struggling pitcher.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs and both teams offering a moneyline of -110, the betting markets expect a closely contested affair. The Marlins, with a slightly below-average implied team total of 4.25 runs, will need to find ways to break through against the Astros, who also project for 4.25 runs. Expect a competitive game as both teams look to gain momentum in their respective seasons.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Spencer Arrighetti will allow an average of 2.3 singles in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  With 6 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Janson Junk ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Graham Pauley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Graham Pauley has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.5-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Miami Marlins offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+19.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 114 games (+17.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Dane Myers has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+7.80 Units / 127% ROI)