Find Rangers vs White Sox Value Bets and Betting Line – Tuesday August 27th, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Texas Rangers on August 27, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The White Sox, with a record of 31-101, sit at the bottom of the standings, while the Rangers, at 60-71, are struggling to find consistency. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both squads are eager to gain an upper hand.

The White Sox’s Garrett Crochet, projected to start, has had a solid year with a 3.64 ERA, ranking him as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, he has struggled with a 6-9 record and is expected to pitch just 4.0 innings today, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs and a concerning 3.5 hits. Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney of the Rangers has had a rough go, sitting at 4-13 with a 4.04 ERA. Heaney is also projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.2 hits, which could be an issue against the White Sox’s struggling offense.

The White Sox’s offense ranks 30th in the league, struggling to generate runs, while the Rangers sit at 24th overall. However, Andrew Vaughn has been a bright spot for Chicago, hitting .333 over the last week with 7 hits and 7 RBIs. Heaney’s high flyball rate might work in his favor against a White Sox lineup that has only managed 90 home runs this season, making it difficult for them to capitalize on fly balls.

With the Rangers currently favored, it remains to be seen if they can leverage their slight edge in pitching and the White Sox’s offensive woes to secure a victory in this matchup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Andrew Heaney’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (47.3% compared to 42.3% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Robbie Grossman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Robbie Grossman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 90.5-mph figure last season has fallen to 87.5-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Garrett Crochet’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2568 rpm) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (2496 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.329) implies that Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck this year with his .242 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen projects as the worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+15.35 Units / 23% ROI)