Find Phillies vs Rays Value Bets and Betting Line – Tuesday May 6th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Tampa Bay Rays

On May 6, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the first game of their interleague series. The Rays are struggling this season with a record of 16-18, while the Phillies sit at a respectable 19-15, showcasing a strong offense that ranks 10th in MLB. In their last outings, the Rays enjoyed a positive turn, winning 7-5 against the New York Yankees, while the Phillies fell short, losing 11-9 to the Atlanta Braves.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Drew Rasmussen for the Rays and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Rasmussen, ranked 17th among starting pitchers according to advanced statistics, has an impressive ERA of 2.64 this season, but his 3.20 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat lucky, indicating potential struggles ahead. In contrast, Wheeler, an elite pitcher ranked 4th, has a solid ERA of 3.48 and a favorable 2.66 xFIP, hinting at a strong performance moving forward.

Offensively, the Rays rank 18th overall, a clear indication of their below-average production. They struggle particularly with home runs, ranking 24th in MLB. Despite that, their speed on the bases is a strength, as they rank 4th in stolen bases. The Phillies, on the other hand, boast a better lineup, highlighted by their best hitter’s impressive 0.956 OPS and 11 home runs this season.

The projections suggest a close game, with the Rays having an average implied team total of 3.77 runs compared to the Phillies’ 4.23 runs. Given Rasmussen’s strong control against a high-walk Phillies offense, this matchup presents an intriguing dynamic that could favor the Rays if their bats can come alive.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate this year. His 43.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.6.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Drew Rasmussen is an extreme groundball pitcher (47% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in George M. Steinbrenner Field — the #10 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Junior Caminero is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 39% ROI)