Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for White Sox vs Royals Match – 7/20/24

Chicago White Sox

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Chicago White Sox on July 20, 2024, in the second game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, riding high after a commanding 7-1 victory over the White Sox the previous day, look to continue their strong season. Currently, the Royals have a record of 53-45, positioning them well in the American League Central. In contrast, the White Sox are struggling with a dismal 27-72 record.

Brady Singer, the Royals’ projected starter, has been solid this season, boasting a 3.20 ERA across 19 starts. Despite his respectable ERA, advanced metrics like his 4.01 FIP suggest he’s been a bit fortunate. Nonetheless, Singer’s ability to pitch deep into games, averaging 6.3 innings per start, gives Kansas City a reliable arm. In his last outing on July 14, Singer had a rough go, allowing four earned runs over three innings. However, facing a White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in MLB for offense could be the perfect remedy.

Jonathan Cannon takes the mound for the White Sox, carrying a 4.41 ERA across eight starts. Cannon’s peripherals indicate he’s been unlucky, with a 3.87 xERA suggesting better days might be ahead. Despite this, his low strikeout rate (18.0 K%) and propensity to allow hits make him a less intimidating opponent for a Royals offense that ranks 16th in MLB.

On the offensive side, the Royals are led by Bobby Witt Jr., who boasts a .328 batting average and .945 OPS. Witt Jr. has been a force, with 17 home runs and 22 stolen bases this season. The Royals’ lineup should have the edge, especially against a White Sox bullpen ranked 30th by advanced-stat Power Rankings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Royals a 67% win probability for this game, aligning closely with the betting market’s implied probability of 69%. With Kansas City favored and Chicago’s continued struggles, the Royals are expected to capitalize on their momentum and secure another win.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Jonathan Cannon in the 12th percentile among all SPs in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Andrew Benintendi has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 82.7-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert, Paul DeJong, Chuckie Robinson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Brady Singer’s 91.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 19th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Adam Frazier has been unlucky this year. His .265 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .308.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Kansas City Royals batters jointly have been one of the best in MLB this year (5th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+10.59 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 away games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+110/-145)
  Brady Singer has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)