Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Pirates vs Phillies Match – 5/18/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 18, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The Phillies, currently sitting at 27-18, are enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates languish at 15-31, struggling significantly. Notably, the Phillies won yesterday’s matchup, further solidifying their position as they look to extend their lead in the series.

Mick Abel is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. While he has struggled this season, ranking as the 262nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, his average projections for the game are concerning. He’s expected to pitch just 4.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out only 4.1 batters. This performance could be detrimental against an already faltering Pirates lineup.

On the other hand, Paul Skenes is set to start for Pittsburgh. Skenes has been a standout this season, boasting a 2.63 ERA and ranking as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing just 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters. Despite the Pirates’ offensive woes, Skenes’ elite status could provide a glimmer of hope.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 9th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs. Their batting average is 6th best, indicating a strong lineup. In contrast, the Pirates rank 28th overall, with a particularly dismal 29th rank in home runs. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities could heavily influence the outcome of the game.

The current moneyline reflects a balanced matchup, but with the Phillies’ superior pitching and offensive strength, they may have the edge needed to secure a victory in this critical game.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Bryan Reynolds’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal average has decreased to 83.2-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 45.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+260/-360)
  J.T. Realmuto has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.50 Units / 125% ROI)