Pittsburgh Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-110
As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 18, 2025, they come off a solid victory, having defeated the Pirates 5-2 the previous day. The Phillies currently stand at 27-18, enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates struggle at 15-31, marking one of the worst records in the league. This matchup is particularly significant as it is the third game in their series, and the Phillies are looking to capitalize on their recent momentum.
On the mound, Philadelphia is projected to start Mick Abel, who has been labeled as one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, ranking 261st out of approximately 350. Abel’s average projections for today are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs. In contrast, the Pirates will send out Paul Skenes, who is enjoying a breakout season, currently ranking 2nd among all starting pitchers. Skenes boasts an impressive 2.63 ERA and is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which indicates a likely edge in the pitching duel.
Offensively, the Phillies rank 8th overall in MLB, which is a testament to their underlying talent. Their best hitter has been particularly hot, with a .421 batting average and a 1.110 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense is struggling significantly, ranking 29th in MLB, which presents a clear advantage for Philadelphia.
With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs and both teams holding a moneyline of -110, betting markets suggest it will be a close contest. However, given the disparities in pitching and offensive performance, the Phillies may have the upper hand in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)Paul Skenes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Bryan Reynolds’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal average has decreased to 83.2-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H MoneylineThe Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 45.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.8.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)Alexander Canario has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 113% ROI)