
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Toronto Blue Jays
-140O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+120
(-110/-110)+120
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (49% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#1-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-140)The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Kevin Gausman’s high usage percentage of his fastball (53.8% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)Addison Barger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Toronto Blue Jays – 2H MoneylineThe Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+120)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 137 games (+25.24 Units / 14% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 93 games (+16.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)Andy Pages has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)
