Find Out the Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cardinals vs Cubs Match – 8/14/26

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Matthew Liberatore has gone to his cut-fastball 6.3% less often this year (4.3%) than he did last season (10.6%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Alec Burleson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 18.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-190)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the best out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Despite posting a .396 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very good luck given the .056 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .340.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+7.70 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+24.00 Units / 400% ROI)