Find Out the Mets vs Athletics Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 4/13/25

New York Mets

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Athletics

As the New York Mets gear up to face the Oakland Athletics on April 13, 2025, they enter this Interleague matchup with a solid 9-5 record, while the Athletics struggle at 6-9. The Mets are looking to bounce back after a tough loss yesterday, where they fell to the Athletics by a score of 3-1. Meanwhile, the Athletics hope to build on their recent victory and gain some momentum.

On the mound, the Athletics are projected to start Luis Severino, who has had a rocky start to the season with an 0-2 record and a 4.74 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 188th best starting pitcher in MLB, Severino’s average ERA suggests he might be due for better luck. However, he faces a challenge against the Mets’ lineup, which has been inconsistent, ranking 22nd in MLB overall.

Opposing him is the Mets’ Kodai Senga, who boasts a strong 1.80 ERA and a 1-1 record in just two starts this season. Ranked 57th among starting pitchers, Senga has shown promise, although projections indicate he may be slightly overperforming. His ability to strike out batters could play a crucial role against an Athletics offense that has struggled with strikeouts this season.

While the Athletics’ offense ranks 11th overall and 10th in team batting average, they are also tied for 5th in home runs, showcasing their power potential. However, the Mets’ bullpen is ranked 22nd, which could provide the Athletics with opportunities late in the game. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a compelling one, especially with the Athletics looking to capitalize on their recent success against the Mets.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga will “start” for New York Mets in today’s game but will server as an opener and may not stay in the game more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Pete Alonso has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 13.2% rate last season to 28.9% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  In today’s matchup, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Luis Severino’s slider rate has risen by 5.9% from last season to this one (24.2% to 30.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.9 mph compared to last year’s 96.7 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Athletics have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+3.45 Units / 5% ROI)
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jacob Wilson has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 42% ROI)