Find Out the Dodgers vs D-Backs Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 5/11/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On May 11, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field in what promises to be an exciting National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks are currently 21-19, putting them slightly above average this season, while the Dodgers boast a strong 26-14 record, indicating they are having a great season. This game marks the fourth in the series, with both teams looking to secure crucial wins as they vie for positioning in the standings.

In their previous game, the Dodgers secured a victory, continuing their upward trend. Zac Gallen is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and while his 3-4 record with a 4.37 ERA suggests an average performance, his xERA of 3.62 indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. Gallen’s ability to pitch 5.5 innings with an average of 5.1 hits allowed could be tested against a potent Dodgers offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

Meanwhile, Tony Gonsolin, with a 1-0 record and a 4.09 ERA, is expected to start for Los Angeles. His projections suggest he may struggle to pitch deep into the game, averaging only 4.7 innings, and his high-flyball rate could be a concern against a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 4th in home runs.

Interestingly, the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 4th overall in MLB, while their bullpen is rated 18th. In contrast, the Dodgers’ offense ranks 2nd, and their bullpen is a strong 5th. With both offenses showing considerable power, this matchup could see plenty of runs, especially with a game total set at 9.5 runs. Betting markets currently have both teams at -110 on the moneyline, signaling that this matchup is expected to be closely contested.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tony Gonsolin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Tony Gonsolin was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and accumulated 9 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, hitters like Max Muncy who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Zac Gallen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tim Tawa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Tim Tawa hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jose Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+155/-200)
  Jose Herrera has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.30 Units / 37% ROI)