San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+170
On June 12, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Francisco Giants in the third game of their series at Coors Field. After a tough 10-7 loss to the Giants the previous day, the Rockies continue to struggle this season, sporting a dismal record of 12-55. In stark contrast, the Giants are riding high with a 40-28 record, demonstrating their ability to compete in the National League West.
Colorado is projected to start Antonio Senzatela, who has had a challenging year with a 1-10 record and an alarming ERA of 6.68. Although Senzatela’s xFIP suggests some bad luck has played a role in his performance, he still projects to allow an average of 3.8 earned runs and 7.1 hits in just 4.9 innings. On the other side of the mound, the Giants will counter with Hayden Birdsong, whose strong 2.55 ERA and favorable matchups against a Rockies offense that ranks 30th in the league bode well for San Francisco. Birdsong has had success with a 3-1 record this season, and while his xFIP indicates he may have benefited from fortune, his strikeout projection of 5.1 batters remains average.
The Rockies’ offense has been lackluster, ranked 30th in batting average and consistently failing to generate power, only hitting 58 home runs this season. This matchup favors the Giants, especially given their strong bullpen, which ranks 1st in the league, compared to the Rockies’ average 16th place ranking.
With the Game Total set at a high 11.0 runs, bettors should expect a competitive atmosphere, but the Giants’ superior pitching and offensive potential make them the clear favorites to secure another win in this series.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Hayden Birdsong’s fastball spin rate has spiked 121 rpm this year (2412 rpm) over where it was last year (2291 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Mike Yastrzemski may have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The San Francisco Giants project to score the most runs on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)Antonio Senzatela is an extreme groundball pitcher (47% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Extreme flyball batters like Orlando Arcia are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hayden Birdsong.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Jordan Beck has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+5.85 Units / 22% ROI)