Los Angeles Dodgers
Chicago Cubs
(+100/-120)+130
As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 18, 2025, at Tokyo Dome, both teams are looking to set a strong tone early in this highly anticipated series. The Cubs enter this matchup with an underwhelming 21st ranking in MLB for home runs, while the Dodgers boast a powerful offense, ranking 2nd in the league overall.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is slated to take the mound for the Cubs. Currently ranked 11th among all starting pitchers, Yamamoto has had a mixed season. He projects to pitch an average of 4.8 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs, which is relatively solid, but he also struggles with hits and walks allowed, projected at 4.0 and 1.3, respectively. His matchup against Dodgers’ lefty Shota Imanaga, who ranks 85th, presents an intriguing dynamic. Imanaga is projected to pitch 4.9 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, but struggles with strikeouts, averaging only 4.8 per game.
Despite the odds favoring the Dodgers with a moneyline of -150, the Cubs have an opportunity to capitalize on the projections, which give them a better shot in this matchup than the betting market suggests. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates a 49% win probability for the Cubs, suggesting there may be value in betting on the underdog.
With both teams striving for an impressive performance as they head into the heart of the season, the Cubs must find a way to elevate their offensive output, especially against a top-tier Dodgers squad. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a close contest is expected. This matchup promises to be an exciting start to their series.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Tallying 15 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Yoshinobu Yamamoto ranks in the 23rd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Shohei Ohtani’s 95.6-mph average exit velocity is among the best in baseball since the start of last season: 100th percentile.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers bats as a group rank 3rd- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when using their 9.3% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under Total BasesKyle Tucker has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 40.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 30.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+25.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+8.80 Units / 176% ROI)