Find Dodgers vs Cubs Value Bets and Betting Line – Tuesday March 18th, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 18, 2025, at Tokyo Dome, this matchup carries a significant competitive edge. The Cubs, currently sitting in the middle of the National League standings, will look to capitalize on their underdog status against a Dodgers team that boasts the 2nd best offense in MLB. With an average of 4.75 runs projected for this game, the Dodgers aim to leverage their firepower against Cubs’ starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Yamamoto, who ranks 11th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has faced challenges this season. He projects to pitch only 4.5 innings and allow 1.9 earned runs, though his tendency to give up 3.9 hits and 1.4 walks is concerning. In contrast, Shota Imanaga of the Dodgers, ranked 85th, is expected to deliver an average outing, projected for 5.0 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers have below-average strikeout projections, with Yamamoto at 4.6 and Imanaga at 4.8.

The Cubs’ offense, ranking 13th overall but struggling with a 21st place in home runs, will need to find power to compete. They do, however, excel in stolen bases, which could play a crucial role in generating scoring opportunities. The Dodgers have a much stronger batting average at 4th, complemented by their 3rd place ranking in home runs.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Cubs could have a win probability of 49%, indicating potential value in betting on them despite their current moneyline of +140. Given the close matchup and the Dodgers’ slight edge, this game promises to be a thrilling contest as both teams vie for supremacy on the international stage.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yoshinobu Yamamoto to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (most of the day), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Shohei Ohtani’s 95.6-mph average exit velocity is among the best in baseball since the start of last season: 100th percentile.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under Total Bases
  Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (43.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.05 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+25.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+5.95 Units / 19% ROI)