
Texas Rangers
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Los Angeles Dodgers
+160O/U: 8.5
(-115/-105)-185
(-115/-105)-185
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jack Leiter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Jack Leiter will post an average of 14.3 outs in this matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Josh Jung’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 86.7-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.3-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Emmet Sheehan’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (61.3% vs. 55.2% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Texas (#3-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 45 games at home (+3.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.05 Units / 70% ROI)
- Corey Seager – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 79% ROI)
